Despite unanimous praise from critics, a 98% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and a beloved auteur in Paul Thomas Anderson behind the camera, the box office success of “One Battle After Another” is anything but assured. $3.1 million from previews last night projects a modest opening weekend for the movie, in the $20 million range. And if that projection becomes reality, then Warner Bros.‘ seven-film streak of $40 million opening weekends for 2025 comes to an end.  Not exactly the numbers the studio wants for a project with an estimated budget ranging from $125-170 million.

But there’s more at stake than “One Battle After Another” recouping its budget for its star, Leonardo DiCaprio.  Talking to Variety, the actor stressed how Anderson “uniquely crafted and specialized” his latest film to be an optimal theater experience.  And in that sense, box office matters, because it means people went to a theater to see the movie, the way Anderson wants people to see it. That portrays “One Battle After Another” as a last stand of sorts against dwindling box office numbers as theaters around the country shutter their doors.

“I think there’s just an inundation of content and so much production going on now — which is a good thing, obviously. But I think box office is important because it means people are in the seats going to theater, going to have that communal experience,” DiCaprio told the outlet. “I mean, Paul shot this movie in Vista Vision — cameras that have rarely been used since the early ‘60s. He wants people to have that immersive experience and make an action film that’s unexpected, tactile, realistic and something that is probably a lot different than what we’ve been saturated with. In that respect, box office is very important,” he said.

That all makes sense, given the dire state of the film industry and languishing box office numbers post-COVID.  It’s an open secret that movie theaters are dying en masse, too, with fewer and fewer moviegoers making the trek to the local cinema on a regular basis. But let’s not have DiCaprio’s theatrical experience narrative overshadow the risk Warner Bros. took in letting Anderson make “One Battle After Another” in the first place. He may be a Hollywood and cinephile favorite, but a Paul Thomas Anderson movie doesn’t guarantee commercial success. None of his films has grossed more than $76.4 million worldwide (2007’s “There Will Be Blood.”). And Anderson’s last Thomas Pynchon adaptation, 2014’s “Inherent Vice,” only made $14.8 million globally on a $20 million budget.  Let’s face it, those aren’t the numbers Warner Bros. eyes for his new film’s theatrical run.

But then there’s the hype around “One Battle After Another.” It’s real, and it’s gigantic, and it’s the most buzz an original, non-franchise studio film has had in quite some time. Word of mouth could push film’s opening weekend well past the current projected marks: numbers that are eerily close to DiCaprio’s last onscreen appearance in Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers Of The Flower Moon,” which made $2.6 million in previews on its way to a $23 million opening weekend. That film was another big-budget, auteurist project that, ultimately, didn’t recoup its massive costs.  But then the “Flower Moon” cast couldn’t market the film due to a strike.  And Scorsese’s film is a much different one than Anderson’s: a serious-minded, 206-minute epic, rather than an antic, screwball adventure replete with gags, car chases, and a runtime nearly an hour shorter.

If word of mouth that “One Battle After Another” isn’t just excellent but the most fun moviegoers may have in a theater this year, then expect it to make at least $40 million this weekend and keep Warner Bros.’ streak alive. Ultimately, that’s what the studio, Anderson, and DiCaprio all want, even if the narrative the film’s leading man espouses is also true. “I would only hope that people go out to the theater and experience it the way it’s meant to be seen,” DiCaprio concluded to Variety. Sure, but the entire industry needs a movie like “One Battle After Another” to thrive commercially, and for several reasons. Let’s not pretend that the future of the theatrical experience is the only thing at stake here.

One thing that may stand in the way of box office success for “One Battle After Another”?  The recent assassination of Charlie Kirk. Nationwide conversations about political violence may disrupt the buzz around a movie about ex-revolutionaries. Anderson told Le Figario that he fails to see a correlation. “It’s a horrible murder,” Anderson said of Kirk’s death, but “I don’t think we can bring it back to my film, an action-comedy very far from reality. I’m just trying to sell movie tickets for a fiction movie.” Right, just like DiCaprio is on his press tour, for the sake of the theatrical experience.

So, will “One Battle After Another” exceeds expectations and overperforms at the global box office this weekend?  Let’s hope so; and not for the sake that Warner Bros. may break even, or for Anderson to have the biggest hit of his career, or even for a dying model of art consumption to enjoy striding out while on its last legs.  Let’s hope this movie does well because all signs point to it being a fun, accessible, and powerful art object that’s tapped into this country’s baffling and frustrating political zeitgeist, and one that might foment a searing shock of clarity and solidarity in what’s an increasingly fractious, divided, and dangerous cultural landscape.  Butts in theater seats is one thing, but the future of this country is another.